By DTN Staff

This article was originally published at 11:02 a.m. CDT on Friday, July 10. It was last updated with additional information at 12:29 a.m. CDT on Friday, July 10.

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OMAHA (DTN) -- USDA trimmed 170 million bushels (mb) from 2026-27 corn ending stocks, estimating that there will be 1.79 billion bushels (bb) of corn on hand at the end of the marketing year. Corn acreage and yield were left unchanged at 95.3 million acres (ma) and 183 bushels per acre (bpa).

USDA increased soybean production to 4.475 billion bushels, which would be a U.S. production record if it holds. USDA estimates that farmers planted 85.4 ma that will yield an average of 53 bpa.

USDA trimmed 20 mb from wheat ending stocks, lowering its projection for 2026-27 to 722 mb.

USDA released its July Crop Production and World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) reports on Friday.

Friday's U.S. ending stocks estimates were slightly bullish for corn, slightly bullish for soybeans and slightly bullish for wheat, said DTN Lead Analyst Rhett Montgomery. World ending stocks estimates were moderately bullish for corn, neutral for soybeans and slightly bullish for wheat.

Stay tuned throughout the morning and refresh this page often. We will be sending a series of updates with the important highlights from Friday's reports, including commentary from our analysts.

You can also view the full reports here:

-- Crop Production: https://www.nass.usda.gov/…

-- World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE): http://www.usda.gov/…

CORN

USDA forecasts 2026-27 corn production at 16 billion bushels, up from 15.995 bb in June. The yield remains pegged at 183 bushels per acre. Planted acres are projected at 95.3 million acres. Harvested acres are projected at 87.4 million. If that holds, the 2026-27 corn crop would be the second largest on record, trailing only last year's crop.

USDA lowered the old-crop carryover 125 million bushels for the new crop to 2.02 billion bushels.

On the demand side, 2026-27 total feed and residual use is pegged at 6.1 billion bushels. Ethanol use is projected at 5.6 bb. Total domestic use is forecast at 13.055 bb.

Corn exports for the new crop were bumped up to 3.2 billion bushels from 3.15 bb last month.

Total usage comes in at 16.255 bb, up 50 mb from June.

Ending stocks for the 2026-27 crop were dropped 170 mb to 1.79 bb.

The farmgate price for the 2026-27 crop is projected at $4.40 a bushel, the same as June.

Looking at the 2025-26 "old crop" corn, ending stocks were cut 125 mb to 2.02 bb. USDA increased feed and residual use for the old crop by 150 mb to 6.350 bb. Ethanol use was lowered from 5.575 bb to 5.55 bb. Corn exports in the 2025-26 crop came in at 3.325 bb, the same as last month.

The farmgate price is $4.15 a bushel.

Globally, USDA projects beginning stocks for the 2026-27 corn crop at 298.67 million metric tons (mmt), down 4.69 mmt from June. Production was lowered to 1,297.09 mmt. Exports globally are projected at 209.88 mmt, up 2.27 mmt. That puts projected global ending stocks for the 2026-27 crop at 275.26 mmt, down 5.96 mmt from June.

Globally, the 2025-26 corn crop exports were pegged at 220.66 mmt. Global ending stocks were lowered to 298.67 mmt.

Brazil's production for the 2025-26 crop was forecast at 138 mmt with exports holding pat at 43 mmt. Argentina's production was raised 2 mmt to 63 mmt, with exports also raised 2 mmt to 45 mmt as well. Ukraine's production was 30.9 mmt with exports raised 1 mmt to 23 mmt.

SOYBEANS

For the 2026-27 marketing year, USDA increased the U.S. soybean crop forecasts from last month's report.

USDA estimates farmers will grow 4.475 bb of soybeans, using a trendline yield estimate of 53 bpa, planted acres at 85.4 million acres with harvested at 84.4 million acres. That would be the largest crop in U.S. history.

Domestic ending stocks came in unchanged at 310 million bushels. USDA sees total supplies up slightly at 4.83 bb. Crush demand remained unchanged at 2.75 bb, while exports are forecast to be 30 mb higher than June at 1.66 bb. Seed use is forecast at 72 mb and residual at 38 mb. USDA's national average farmgate price estimate remains unchanged at $11.40 per bushel.

For the old crop, 2025-26 marketing year, domestic ending stocks fell to 330 mb. Exports were pegged higher at 1.52 bb. USDA held the national average farm gate price at $10.40 per bushel.

Globally, new-crop ending stocks for the 2026-27 marketing year were forecast at 124.17 mmt, down slightly from last month. USDA anticipates unchanged Brazilian production at 186 mmt of soybeans, with Argentina at 50 mmt.

Global old crop ending stocks for 2025-26 were estimated at 125.33 mmt, down slightly from last month.

USDA left Brazil's production unchanged at 180 mmt with exports at 115 mmt. Argentina's production was listed at 50 mmt.

WHEAT

USDA estimates 2026-2027 wheat production at 1.536 billion bushels, down from 1.543 bb in the June report, on 32.1 million acres of wheat harvested.

The estimated yield of 47.9 bushels per acre is up from 47.0 bushels per acre last month.

USDA estimates ending stocks at 722 million bushels, down from 744 mb in June. Ending stocks for old-crop wheat were cut to 920 mb from June's estimate of 935 mb.

Total use in new crop wheat is unchanged at 1.874 bb in June, and exports remained unchanged at 775 mb.

In the old crop, USDA estimates total use at 2.044 billion bushels, up from 2.030 bb last month. Feed and residual for the old crop is estimated at 118 mb, up from 100 mb in June.

Wheat farmgate prices were unchanged at $6.00 per bushel.

Winter wheat production is forecast at 990 million bushels, down 4% from the June 1 forecast and down 29% from 2025. As of July 1, the U.S. yield is forecast at 46.7 bushels per acre, down 0.1 bushel from last month and down 8.2 bushels from last year's average yield of 54.9 bushels per acre. If realized, the U.S. yield would be the lowest since 2015.

Hard red winter production at 471 million bushels is down 5% from last month. Soft red winter, at 287 million bushels, is down 4% from the June forecast. White winter at 232 million bushels is down less than

1% from last month. Of the white winter production, 7.26 million bushels are hard white and 225 million bushels are soft white.

Durum wheat production is forecast at 70.9 million bushels, down 18% from 2025. Based on July 1 conditions, yields are expected to average 39.9 bushels per harvested acre, down 0.7 bushel from 2025. Area harvested for grain or seed is expected to total 1.78 million acres, unchanged from the Acreage report released on June 30, 2026, but down 16% from 2025.

Other spring wheat production for grain is forecast at 475 million bushels, down 4% from last year. Based on July 1 conditions, yields are expected to average 52.3 bushels per harvested acre, up 0.6 bushel from 2025.

If realized, the U.S. yield would be the second highest behind 2024. Area harvested for grain or seed is expected to total 9.08 million acres, unchanged from the Acreage report released on June 30, 2026, but 6% below 2025. Of the total production, 436 million bushels are hard red spring wheat, down 5% from 2025.

Globally, USDA estimates wheat production at 819.97 million metric tons in July, a decrease from 820.06 mmt in June.

USDA estimates production in the European Union at 136.0 mmt. Russian production was pegged at 88.5 mmt, unchanged from last month. Chinese production at 141 mmt is unchanged from June.

USDA estimates wheat world ending stocks at 272.84 mmt, down from 275.42 mmt in June.

European Union ending stocks are pegged at 14.33 mmt, a decrease from 14.63 mmt last month. Russian ending stocks were up 0.5 mmt at 12.09 mmt.

Total global wheat exports were pegged at 213.05 mmt in July. Russian exports were bumped up to 47.5 mmt, while China's exports were estimated at 1 mmt.

LIVESTOCK

Friday's WASDE report shared mixed news for the cattle and beef markets of 2026, said DTN Livestock Analyst ShayLe Stewart.

"Beef production for 2026 was decreased by 150 million pounds, as the decrease in steer and heifer slaughter has more than offset the increase in cow slaughter," Stewart said. "Quarterly fed steer price projections for 2026 were mostly supportive, as steer prices in the third quarter are now anticipated to average $255 (up $3 from last month's report), steers in the fourth quarter are expected to average $255 (unchanged from last month), steers in the first quarter of 2027 are anticipated to average $250 (unchanged from last month) and steers in the second quarter of 2027 are anticipated to average $255. Beef imports for 2026 decreased by 50 million pounds and beef exports for 2026 also decreased by 10 million pounds."

Friday's WASDE report shared mixed news for the pork and hog markets of 2026, Stewart said.

"Pork production for 2026 was decreased by 40 million pounds, as slaughter speeds in the second half of the year are anticipated," Stewart said. "Quarterly price projections for 2026 were decreased, as hogs in the third quarter of 2026 are now anticipated to average $69 (down $2 from last month's report), hogs in the fourth quarter are anticipated to average $58 (down $4 from last month), hogs in the first quarter of 2027 are expected to average $62 (unchanged from last month) and hogs in the second quarter of 2027 are expected to average $68. Pork imports for 2026 were increased by 25 million pounds, and pork exports for 2026 were decreased by 15 million pounds."

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Join us for DTN's post-report webinar at 12:30 p.m. CDT on Friday, July 10, as we discuss USDA's new estimates in light of recent market events. Questions are welcome, and registrants will receive a replay link for viewing at their convenience. Register here for Friday's USDA WASDE webinar: https://www.dtn.com/….

U.S. PRODUCTION (Million Bushels) 2026-27
	Jul	Avg	High	Low	Jun	2025-26
Corn	16,000	15,967	16,000	15,852	15,995	17,021
Soybeans	4,475	4,457	4,481	4,430	4,435	4,262
All Wheat	1,536	1,524	1,568	1,498	1,561	1,985
Winter	990	1,002	1,030	968	1,030	1,402
HRW	471	480	496	445	497	804
SRW	287	293	300	279	300	353
White	271	229	235	209	233	244
U.S. ENDING STOCKS (Million Bushels) 2025-26
	Jul	Avg	High	Low	Jun
Corn	2,020	2,077	2,151	1,990	2,145
Soybeans	330	337	350	312	340
Wheat	920	927	945	920	935
U.S. ENDING STOCKS (Million Bushels) 2026-27
	Jul	Avg	High	Low	Jun
Corn	1,790	1,855	1,963	1,542	1,960
Soybeans	310	324	358	270	310
Wheat	722	710	744	680	744
WORLD ENDING STOCKS (million metric tons) 2025-26
	Jul	Avg	High	Low	Jun
Corn	298.7	302.9	304.0	301.7	303.4
Soybeans	125.3	125.7	126.0	125.4	125.5
Wheat	279.0	279.6	280.0	278.5	280.0
WORLD ENDING STOCKS (million metric tons) 2026-27
	Jul	Avg	High	Low	Jun
Corn	275.3	279.0	283.0	271.0	281.2
Soybeans	124.2	125.2	126.2	124.0	124.9
Wheat	272.8	273.2	275.1	270.0	275.4
WORLD PRODUCTION (million metric tons) 2025-26
	Jul	Avg	High	Low	Jun
CORN
Argentina	63.0	61.5	62.0	60.5	61.0
Brazil	138.0	138.3	139.0	137.5	138.0
SOYBEANS
Argentina	50.0	50.1	51.0	50.0	50.0
Brazil	180.0	180.3	182.1	180.0	180.0

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